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ivo indjov

В полунощ започва предизборната кампания в Испания. Резултатите от вота на 26 юни могат да пренаредят европейския политически пъзел дори по-драматично от референдума за „Брекзит“ във Великобритания три дни по-рано. След нееднозначния експеримент „СИРИЗА“ в Гърция м. г. е възможно и в голяма и витална страна от ЕС като Испания новата левица да поеме управлението. Разбира се, това е само един от предизборните сценарии. Той предвижда коалиция между „Подемос“, съюзен предизборно с бившите комунисти и ИСРП (социалистите) като младши партньор. За да достигне тази все още хипотетична коалиция необходимото абсолютно мнозинство от 176 гласа, ще й трябва подкрепата и на малки леви и националистически формации. Другата управленска опция „съюзява“ сега управляващата Народна партия (консерваторите) и „Сиудаданос“ (либералите) – с одобрението на социалистите… Трети вариант – голяма коалиция между консерватори и социалисти, за която отново ще натискат испанският бизнес и Брюксел! От зрелостта на ръководството на ИСРП зависи дали Испания ще има прогресивно правителство, работещо срещу остеритета и в интерес на хората, или ще наблюдаваме премоделиране на статуквото в полза на политическата и финансовата каста, която управлява по неолиберален модел. Като оставим настрана тънките червени линии, които двете водещи леви формации не искаха да прекрачат при опитите за съставяне на правителство след предходните избори (високомерието на ИСРП спрямо „Подемос“ и нежеланието на младата формация да оттегли обещанието си каталунците сами да решават за своето бъдеще и др.), първият сценарий аритметически е напълно реализуем. Резултатите от последното проучване на CIS – испанския държавен социологически институт, отреждат първо място на Народната партия с 29,2 %, втори са „Унидос Подемос“ – 25,6 %, трети – ИСРП с 21,2 %, и четвърти „Сиудаданос“ – 14,6 %.

podemos

Иво Инджов, Институт за модерна политика

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